The Sumabura Proof Pie

"I wasn't expecting that Wii would be a console targeted only for non-gamers", says Goichi "Suda51" Suda of Grasshopper Manufacture, the man behind Killer 7 and the recent No More Heroes in the wake of massively disappointing sales of the latter. In a recent interview he claims, like so many others, that only Nintendo can sell games for the Wii, which may be because only Nintendo is targeting this "non-gamer" market properly.

The Wii's audience is vastly different from the other consoles' and previous generations, that much should be obvious by now. The undisputed major titles are Wii Sports and Wii Fit aimed squarely at, what we mistakenly and slightly patronizingly call "non-gamers". I guess the term should be "previously non-gamers" or “differently interested gamers” but ideally the real terminologies should be "gamers", people who enjoy games of any shape and size, and "hard-core gamers", those of us who spend too much money on games, own more than one console and have vastly inflated opinions and feelings of entitlement when it comes to our favourite titles. Just because the new main target market is less interested in killing generic alien invaders or level grinding doesn’t mean they are “non-gamers”, if you ask me. The reality is that the regular gamer market has outgrown the hard-core one, in terms of numbers at least, and that the hard-core is becoming increasingly niche. All this is widely known, or at least quietly realised, and has been written about before.

No More Heroes, even though it is fun and a game I'd recommend to any Killer 7 fan, is niche even for a hard-core game and sales have proven this. But next week will be an interesting event. Next week sees the Japanese release of Super Smash Brothers Brawl, or "Sumabura" as the cool kids call it. This game is the ultimate in fan service, a fanboy's wet dream of IP crossover and a deliciously retro 2.5D beat'em up. It is hardcore, but it is popular hard-core. But is it a fit for the Wii audience? My guess is: not so much.

The media hype machine is in overdrive. Famitsu gave it a perfect score and bundled this week's issue with a separate, quite thick informative booklet on the game's characters. To be played best, allegedly, you will need to purchase a classic controller or dust off your old Gamecube controllers. It possibly requires a lot of time to unlock all the events if it's anything like its Gamecube prequel. The fans are rabidly excited (as am I) and it's out on Thursday.

As a spurious prediction I’d say we may see a promising start with the usual drop-off over the next few months and sales figures that would make anyone proud but that are still lower than expected, a bit like Super Mario Galaxy. If Sumabura doesn’t sell that well it would be proof positive that the Wii isn’t a hard-core friendly platform. I suspect already that it isn’t, but a title like this could prove it once and for all.

And that’d be a shame. With lower development budgets for Wii titles it offers a good platform for niche or truly original hard-core titles, as opposed to the mega-projects that make Xbox and Playstation development so risky these days. But if nobody buys them, what is the point? The Wii will have painted itself into the casual corner once and for all, but seeing the sales figures that is not a bad corner to be in at all.

This also means the Wii is out of the “console war”. It has its own market distinctly different from its competitors, whom must fight amongst themselves for their own top spot. Both Microsoft and Sony are making wooing noises to the casual market but they’ll have a hard time stealing customers from the big N.

So any publisher looking to make money on the Wii must squarely look at casual and avoid hard-core at all costs. Also, they must make sure they have a title which is easily shortened for the Japanese fans, like “Kinhar” (Kingdom Hearts), “Grantsu” (Gran Turismo) or “Durakuwe” (Dragon Quest).

I will, of course, be buying Sumabura next week and though I haven’t really done much game review type posts may report on my findings after a weekend of hard-core Peach on Pikachu action.

44 comments:

  1. You got the note that Smash Bros. got delayed until the 31st?

    The Wii isn't hard-core game friendly?
    I wouldn't say that. It's just that the developers of the hard-core games initially decided to do their stuff on the 360 and PS3 because of the graphics, so many hard-core gamers didn't buy a Wii. Games like Super Mario Galaxy alone aren't a reason to buy a console as well, considering they may have already bought a PS3/360 or are still busy playing their PS2 games.

    The Wii isn't hard-core game unfriendly, there are just not enough hard-core games on the system. The PS3 and 360 aren't selling well enough in Japan to ensure enough people will buy a game to cover the development costs, so the developers are forced to release their hard-core games for the Wii as well. Just look how everyone seems to develop multiplatform because of that. The main difference between the PS3 and the 360 isn't really the games but the online system and the price.

    The train is just gaining momentum.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I can't wait to buy No More Heroes when it comes out over here in less than a week, though I assume I'm in the minority. I hope that somehow it manages to surpass sales expectations in the west. Hopefully the hardcore folk who keep a Wii around for their family to play bowling on will go ahead and give this crazy, gory lightsaber game a shot.

    If western gamers can keep Japanese hardcore game development alive, I'll be happy with that.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Delayed? Awwww, man. I'm simply too busy and otherwise occupied to keep up to date with this stuff as I'm supposed to as a geek. Isn't it annoying when life gets in the way of your fun?

    My whole point was that even if there were enough hard-core games on the Wii it's still a bad market fit. Sumabura should be some kind of measure to see if hard-core sells *at all* on the Wii, which my guess is "yes but not so much". Even if a major title like Sumabura doesn't sell enough, having more har-core games available isn't going to change the situation.

    I mean, look at the DS. Plenty of hard-core stuff out there, yet it's the casual games and activity/community games that sell, and the many women playing them buying the hard- and software. I think the Wii will fit in nicely with that kind of market.

    I certainly DO hope hard-core remains alive on the Wii, but I am preparing for the fact it may not be for much longer.

    ReplyDelete
  4. It wouldn't surprise me to see some of the proudly-niche developers in Japan (Suda51 and Yoot Saito come to mind) distance themselves from the casual-core Wii and start working more with Sony or (gasp!) Microsoft for their bizarre titles. I wouldn't complain, and I don't think many would.

    I've always told people, "No one buys a Gamecube for sports gaming." (They might buy sports titles, but those weren't the franchises they had in mind.) With the Wii, I suppose I can amend it to say, "No one buys a Wii to play serious games."

    ReplyDelete
  5. @ doesnotequal

    You're proberbly right about those indie devs moving onto other, more hardcore focused, consoles. In the latest Edge magazine, a 3-page Suda 51 interview concludes:

    Edge: "Which platform would you like to work with in the future?"

    Suda51: "The Xbox 360. Definitely, I want to develop on this platform. It is really easy to work with. It is also quite popular outside Japan on markets that I would like to aim at. Specifically, I think of the American market as the Major League - I would like to go there and be successful."

    Elsewhere he mentions how he'd like to branch out to western markets. Maybe he thinks his hardcore games would sell better to a 360/PS3 audience, which is proberbly true.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Most of the people I know here in the U.K. that owned a Wii sold it during the Christmas craze and bought either a 360 or a PS3 (mostly 360 to be honest).

    Back when the Wii was announced, the sort of games I imagined would be coming out on it were sword-fighting or "point-and-click" adventures and the such.

    I completely agree with JC, the Wii has it's own market (and a huge one).

    ReplyDelete
  7. What's your definition of "not selling well" for SSB:B? Not selling as well as the GC version?

    I didn't play No More Heroes, but from what people say, it's a borderline art-game, inscrutable and weird in the vein of Killer 7. Marketability wise, that's worlds apart from the hyper-accessible IP-fest that is SSB.

    My guess is the reality is that while the Wii hasn't taken great pains to be hardcore-friendly, it also hasn't - despite what hordes of insecure fanboys with the consumer equivalent of "abandonment issues" might say - been hardcore-unfriendly. I wouldn't underestimate the number of Nintendo diehards for whom the fan service of SSB makes it a must-buy.

    ReplyDelete
  8. You're not entirely wrong, anon. Of course the Ninty fanboy will be out in force (as will I), but don't let's forget that the bulk of the Wii's market isn't Ninty fanboys, which is why it'll be interesting to see how it sells.

    The insecure fanboys are funnier though. This post has been crosslinked here and there and apparently I've said that Smash Brothers won't sell *at all*, that the Wii is shit and the PS3 roxxors. I guess I should write more clearly in future.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm the same Anon from two posts back. Update for anyone who cares:

    Super Smash Bros. Brawl Sells 1.4 million

    Interesting how that played out. I'm actually not a Nintendo fanboy at all and I barely care about Smash Bros, so don't take this as "told you so". I just think it reinforces my earlier hunch that the Wii does have a decent (if not huge) built-in fan base who will reliably pad out the sales of big first party franchises like SSB.

    Now if only the system had anything approaching a solid third party catalog.

    ReplyDelete
  10. It's a fair cop. I made the wrong call. I severely underestimated the rabid hunger for SSBB. It's encouraging, though, knowing there is most definitely a space for super hard-core on the Wii, though I'm at a bit of a loss to see, aside possibly from Mario Kart, which title can follow this display of hotcake selling speed.

    ReplyDelete
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